Spatial areas of genotype probability: Predicting the spatial distribution of adaptive genetic variants under future climatic conditions

In a context of rapid global change, one the key components for survival species is their genetic evolutionary potential adaptation. Many methods have been developed to identify variants underpinning adaptation climate, but few tools were made available integrate this knowledge into conservation management. We present here SPatial Areas Genotype probability (SPAG), method transpose results genotype–environment association studies an spatial prediction framework. define univariate model predicting distribution single-locus adaptive genotype and three multivariate models allowing integration several loci in composite genotype. Unlike existing methods, SPAGs provide (a) flexible approach combine under different types intergenic relationships (b) cross-validation framework assess pertinence predictions. can be integrated with climate change projections forecast future genotypes. The analysis mismatch between current (“genomic offset”) makes it possible vulnerable populations potentially lacking genotypes necessary survival. tested SPAG on simulated population applied characterize 161 Moroccan goats bioclimatic conditions. identified seven regions goat genome strongly associated precipitation seasonality used predict potential. then forecasted shift strong scenario uncovered likely threatened methodology efficient tool across landscape information frameworks.